Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
