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Only two days before the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in audience and most voters favored Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of ballots added after that and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world in which election day turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, where the opponent would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner gained half a million votes to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani get additional support from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump last year backed Zohran this year. But it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I figured we might exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to surpass 50%. He’s at just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I hope he achieves it because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Including Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump area. That really surprised me. Cuomo kept very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added many conservatives on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I believe there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. But overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. Plus, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that each urban center in America can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.