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A mere 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or the source of Villa's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Title Contenders?

It remains a rather hard query to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, even as the wins have piled up.

According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the margins are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.

The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football into the top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the force he showed in Germany.
• The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial England player.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.